Posts by Jared Wickes
HY Trend, Credit Conditions and Recession Indicators are Key Bear Market Indicators
No major changes to the trade signals since last week’s post. The equity, fixed income and gold signals remain in a bullish trend. The Ned Davis Research (NDR) CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat model evaluates the price trends across 24 sub-industry sectors. Measured on a daily basis are the short-term, medium-term and long-term trends within…
Read MoreBullish Equity and Fixed Income Trends Charge On, Despite Global Concerns of Coronavirus
Essentially no major changes to the trade signals since last week’s post. The equity, fixed income and gold signals remain in a bullish trend. The CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program moved to a buy signal from a sell. Additionally, the Ned Davis Research (NDR) Crowd Sentiment Poll changed to Extreme Optimism, which is generally…
Read MoreEquity, Bond and Gold Signals Bullish
Most of the month-end recession watch charts are updated below. Bottom line: Low probability of a U.S. recession in the next six months. The equity market trend indicators remain bullish, the factor model favors “Growth,” investor sentiment has moved from Extreme Optimism to Neutral. With the exception of the high yield bond market, the trend…
Read MoreLow Cash, High Market Debt
Two notable signal changes since last week’s post. The high yield signal moved to a sell from a buy. Additionally, the Ned Davis Research Daily Trading Sentiment Composite declined to 62.22 from 83.33, indicating that investors are slightly less bullish at this time. The indicator is designed to highlight short-term swings in investor psychology. You’ll…
Read MoreNear-Record Bullish Investor Sentiment Screams Caution
Inflation pressures are ticking higher. It will be important to watch the global bond markets (direction of interest rates). We’ll be looking at those trends in Friday’s On My Radar. But for now, collectively, global interest rates are below their 10-month smoothed moving average trend lines and the MSCI World Total Market Index is above its…
Read MoreDespite Domestic and Global Issues, Bullish Market Trends Continue
Like it or not, we live in interesting times. Two weeks ago, it appeared that the United States and Iran were headed toward a serious armed conflict (some calling it “World War III”) that could envelope the Middle East. However, in response to the killing of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, Iran conducted a relatively…
Read MoreInterest Rates are Key to Risk Assets in 2020
Geopolitical tensions remain high. With a new Marine in the family, my wife Susan and I are nervous. That does sound a bit selfish… please know we are troubled by the news, as I’m sure you are, with or without a son in the military. Given the risks, I would have expected to see risk…
Read MoreWelcome to 2020! Equity Signals Continue to Flash Green, Extreme Investor Optimism Signals Caution
As was the case for the majority of 2019, the weight of the trend for the equity market remains bullish. The Zweig Bond Model and CMG Managed High Yield Bond Program signals remain bullish. It’s been an outstanding two months for the high yield market and a solid year for all risk assets. Gold too…
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