Most of the month-end recession watch charts are updated below. Bottom line: Low probability of a U.S. recession in the next six months. The equity market trend indicators remain bullish, the factor model favors “Growth,” investor sentiment has moved from Extreme Optimism to Neutral. With the exception of the high yield bond market, the trend…

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Two notable signal changes since last week’s post. The high yield signal moved to a sell from a buy. Additionally, the Ned Davis Research Daily Trading Sentiment Composite declined to 62.22 from 83.33, indicating that investors are slightly less bullish at this time. The indicator is designed to highlight short-term swings in investor psychology. You’ll…

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Inflation pressures are ticking higher. It will be important to watch the global bond markets (direction of interest rates). We’ll be looking at those trends in Friday’s On My Radar. But for now, collectively, global interest rates are below their 10-month smoothed moving average trend lines and the MSCI World Total Market Index is above its…

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Like it or not, we live in interesting times. Two weeks ago, it appeared that the United States and Iran were headed toward a serious armed conflict (some calling it “World War III”) that could envelope the Middle East. However, in response to the killing of Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani, Iran conducted a relatively…

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Geopolitical tensions remain high. With a new Marine in the family, my wife Susan and I are nervous. That does sound a bit selfish… please know we are troubled by the news, as I’m sure you are, with or without a son in the military. Given the risks, I would have expected to see risk…

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The trend for the equity market remains favorable. No signal changes since last week’s post. However, I am keeping an eye on inflation. The following chart is the Ned Davis Research Inflation Timing Model. My go-to inflation indicator. The model consists of 22 indicators that primarily measure the various rates of change of such indicators…

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No material changes since last week’s update: the weight of technical trend evidence remains bullish for equities, high-quality fixed income and gold. High yield bond prices continue to trend higher though modestly. My favorite recession watch indicators continue to signal no recession in the next six months. Further below, you’ll find the Ned Davis Research…

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